Coinbase & Crypto Winter?

TL;DR Coinbase (COIN) deep dive:

[I]   Existential Threat Waves: Will Crypto Die?  {Unlikely}
On Existential Threat Waves, a look at history.

[II]  A Tale Of Contrasts: Will Coinbase Die?     {Unlikely}
Testing COIN's survivability with a close look at the Balance Sheet, Debt and Cash Burn profile.

[III] Coinbase Valuation: Then and Now.           {Cheapening}
When expectations diverge from realities...

We wrote a deep dive on Coinbase Global at the time of its Direct Listing last year (Apr’21), delving into Coinbase’s business and Direct Listing valuation (priced at US$86 billion).

At the time of the Direct Listing (Apr’21), this was a summary of Coinbase Global (COIN) initial pricing:

COIN would have to deliver hyper growth along with hyper profitability (35%+ annual revenue growth, 45%+ operating margin) over a decade to justify expected pricing. Expected pricing is in the 79th percentile of fair value ranges.

COIN has fallen 85% from its peak traded price.

Over the past year, COIN’s fortunes have waxed and waned with the broader cryptocurrency cycle. With the onset of yet another Crypto Winter, it is an apt moment to look at what has transpired over the past year.

Usual Disclaimers Apply: This is an educational piece delving into business histories, our approach and considered opinions. We make no solicitations on the industry or the companies mentioned as investments.

The only true protection that we have when risking capital is independent judgment.

Read at length here